We are happy to share the Intermediate Note of Task 3.1, “Evolution of RN threats”, a new project release.
The Intermediate Note is an internal preliminary contribution to INCLUDING activities, and it will feed into the official Deliverable, D3.1 “Evolution of RN threats” due at M56. This analysis will focus on RN unconventional threats and how they are evolving, by investigating the trends which are likely to characterise radiological and nuclear (RN) events that might be conducted by criminal or terrorist actors in the future. By examining cases that have occurred in the past, the Note tries to assess the types of threats that continue to represent a risk today and might continue do so in the upcoming years. Accordingly, the Note also aims to provide inputs to Task 3.2 and Task 3.3, with the inclusion of some preliminary findings related to main strengths and weaknesses of the management of RN events.
The first part of the document is an overview of past RN events. More specifically, it takes into consideration cases that saw the involvement of RN material in the past few years. The analysis ranges from smuggling activities, such as the illicit trafficking of nuclear material that was recently discovered in Vienna (December 2019), to sabotage of nuclear facilities, like the attempted sabotage of the Doel Nuclear Power Station (August 2014).
Building upon the past events, the report outlines the evolution of RN events conducted by criminal or terrorist networks. Four types of dangerous activities involving RN material are identified as most likely to pose future threats – the smuggling of RN material, cyber-attacks to nuclear facilities, sabotage of nuclear installations or other facilities hosting RN material, and construction and employment of RN crude devices. New technologies, such as unmanned aerial systems (UASs) could have an impact on the development of future threats and are taken into consideration in the analysis. After having delineated such threats, some space is dedicated to an assessment of the perception of the community of RN experts on the matter.
A final section briefly introduces a selection of existing weaknesses in the training activities meant to instruct those involved in RN emergencies. On this issue, special attention is given to the importance of effective collaboration between the civil and the military sectors.
You can find the full document here:
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